A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
