Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
